You have to check for failure before checking the next in line, so you multiply the odds of failure times the next odds of success for each new roll. To Jyrmar, you’re running into the problem a lot of people run into with stats, think of it this way, by your logic a three die block would’ve meant 1/3+1/3+1/3 = 100% chance of success, which I’m sure you realize is wrong (As I’m sure you’ve seen a 3 die block fail). Basically, if you’re looking for a specific case (knocking someone down) it doesn’t matter if you roll one die and then the other or if you roll both at the same time. The other way to look at 2 die unskilled blocks is that they’re the same as 1 die blocks with rerolls. His odds are right across the board (so far as I’ve seen). I am just trying to resolve a bit of confusion on my end. Again, what am I not seeing?ĭon’t take any of this as a criticism. However, I would like to understand what I am doing wrong regarding the calculations.įinally, given wrestling results in both Att/Def lying prone on the pitch (rather than a Def knock down, while the Att remains standing), shouldn’t the odds be 33.3% the Att will remain standing, while the Def is knocked down. I do not doubt you have posted the correct % as I have seen these same odds elsewhere. Before looking at your chart, I thought a two dice block, with Att/Def None would result in a 66.7% success rate (2/6 + 2/6 ). Regarding a two dice block, what calculations are used to arrive at 55.6% success rate for Att/Def using None? Given this % relates to 5 of 9, what constitute the 5 succesful results. However, when Pro is factored for the Att (None for the Def), how do you arrive at 44.4%? Is this due to the 50% chance that Pro will not result in a re-roll? How does this result in 4 of 9 chances of success? My math skills are far from elite, so bear with me □ Regarding a one die block, I understand the odds of a succesful knock down, while remaining standing, are 2 of 6. Question for you about the calculations used to determine some of the results. If you didn’t want to go prone, then you just look at the odds as though you didn’t have Wrestle.įantastic info Coach! Much appreciated. It is ignoring the fact that you also go prone, as this isn’t a turnover and is assumed that was your intention. Your last point regarding Wrestle, it is assumed the aim of the block is to knock the other guy over, typcially you use Wrestle for blitzing the opposing ball carrier. You are rolling two dice so multiply them together 16/36 which cancels down to 4/9. So one one dice you fail to knock them over on the skull, both down, and the two push results, so 4 of the 6 sides 4/6. To work that out mathematically instead of writing out all 36 combinations to find that you do need to find the odds of failing it then subtact that from 1. The two dice block with no skills, you suceed 20 times of the 36 combinations or 20/36 which is the same as 5/9. The answers seem to be in the right ball park though, ie Pro should succeed more times than without it but less times than with a Reroll. It is the Pro and Reroll calculations I am the least certain on and if any maths gurus care to jump in and explain it in more detail I am happy to defer, or be corrected if they are wrong.
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